"India's GDP growth rate is about 6.5 per cent this year and our forecast is that the GDP would grow by 8 per cent in FY 11," HSBC India's CEO, Stuart Arthur Davis, told reporters in Mumbai on Monday.
S&P Global Ratings on Tuesday raised India's growth projection for the current fiscal to -7.7 per cent from -9 per cent estimated earlier on rising demand and falling COVID infection rates. "Rising demand and falling infection rates have tempered our expectation of COVID's hit on the Indian economy. S&P Global Ratings has revised real GDP growth to negative 7.7 per cent for the year ending March 2021, from negative 9 per cent previously," S&P said in a statement. The US-based rating agency said its revision in growth forecast reflects a faster-than-expected recovery in the quarter through September. For the next fiscal, it projected India's growth to rebound to 10 per cent.
Among the 30 Sensex companies, Mahindra & Mahindra, Power Grid, Sun Pharma, Nestle, UltraTech Cement, NTPC, ITC, ICICI Bank, Titan, Bajaj Finserv, Bharti Airtel, and HDFC Bank were among the biggest gainers. IndusInd Bank, Adani Ports, Tata Steel, Reliance Industries, Axis Bank and Bajaj Finance were among the laggards.
'Given the 50 per cent or thereabouts increase in borrowing that has been announced, it is a reasonable estimate to say that at this time, an increase of 1.7-1.8 per cent on the 3.5 per cent budgeted fiscal deficit target is being anticipated,' Chief Economic Adviser Krishnamurthy Subramanian said on Friday.
It is also likely to assume a deflator of around 4 per cent. That could take the nominal GDP outlook for FY21 to around 10 per cent. It is this nominal GDP forecast on the basis of which the finance ministry is calculating key Budget targets like the fiscal deficit as a percentage of GDP and tax revenue growth for the coming year.
Moody's on Monday slashed India's growth forecast for 2020 to 5.4 per cent from 6.6 per cent projected earlier, on slower than expected economic recovery. In its update on Global Macro Outlook, Moody's Investors Service said India's economy has decelerated rapidly over the last 2 years and economic recovery is likely to be 'shallow'.
India, the world's fifth largest economy in the world, is likely to overtake Japan to become the world's third-largest economy with a GDP of $7.3 trillion by 2030, S&P Global Market Intelligence said in its latest issue of PMI. After two years of rapid economic growth in 2021 and 2022, the Indian economy has continued to show sustained strong growth during the 2023 calendar year. India's gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to grow 6.2-6.3 per cent in the fiscal year ending in March 2024, being the fastest-growing major economy this fiscal year.
Earlier Rajeev Malik an analyst with Macquarie Group had downgraded India's economic growth forecast to 6.5 per cent for the fiscal ended March 2010, from 7 per cent on account of weak monsoon.
Pencilling in a GDP growth in third and fourth quarters, SBI Research on Wednesday revised its contraction forecast for the current fiscal year to 7 per cent. The agency had earlier forecast a 7.4 per cent contraction in 2020-21 GDP numbers. In April-September, the economy contracted 15.7 per cent but the second half may see a surprise 2.8 per cent growth, if the SBI analysis turns out to be correct.
Analysts welcomed the better Q2 GDP readings of 4.8 per cent, which came in above their expectations, but warned that the planned expenditure cuts by the government will be the key thing to watch out going forward.
Global banking major, HSBC has retained its India GDP growth forecast of 6.2 per cent in FY10 but hiked the outlook for next fiscal by 0.5 per cent to 8.5 per cent given the economic recovery.
Apart from supply chain disruptions, Moody's also expects consumption and investment to be affected and prices of oil and other commodities to remain around current lows until the end of June.
Everyone, from investment banks to economists, are speculating about the GDP growth rate. Such speculation is often followed by herd mentality. Everybody is a big bear these days. Everyone is predicting a US recession that will last much more than six months. But large parts of the world are yet to show any significant deceleration in GDP growth in response to the US slowdown. Another useful statistic is the changing share in world GDP growth, in US dollars, of India & China.
Structural reforms, pro-people programmes and employment opportunities helped the economy get new vigour, the finance minister said. After contracting by 5.8 per cent in 2020-21, the economy recorded a growth of 9.1 per cent in 2021-22.
Moody's Investors Service on Friday projected India's growth at zero per cent for the current fiscal and said the negative outlook on sovereign rating reflects increasing risks that GDP growth will remain significantly lower than in the past. The outlook also partly shows weaker policy effectiveness to address economic and institutional issues, it noted in the update to its November 2019 rating forecast.
NCAER has pegged the growth rate between 4.9 and 5.2 per cent, led by healthy projections in the industrial output and services sector.
S&P Global Ratings on Monday retained India's GDP growth forecast at 6 per cent saying it will be the fastest growing economy among Asia Pacific nations. The GDP growth forecast for the current and the next fiscal has been kept unchanged from the forecast made in March partly on account of domestic resilience. "We see the fastest growth at about 6 per cent in India, Vietnam, and the Philippines, S&P Global Ratings said in its quarterly economic update for Asia-Pacific.
While most economies contracted in the second quarter of 2020, the Chinese economy grew by 3.2 per cent.
Our stock markets will remain volatile for a while and upswings could be followed by a downturn.
Market participants were cautious ahead of WPI data release tomorrow.
For the current fiscal which ends on March 31, it put the real GDP estimate at 5 per cent. It estimated a 7 per cent growth in 2022-23 and 2023-24 fiscal years. The inflation rate was seen moderating to 4.4 per cent in the next fiscal from 4.7 per cent in the current.
The country's gross domestic product (GDP) growth is likely to be 8.8 to 9 per cent in the current financial year, driven by agriculture and industry sectors, Care Ratings said in a report. The country's economy had contracted by 7.3 per cent in fiscal 2020-21. The agency said the outlook for the Indian economy on almost all counts in FY22 would look seemingly better than FY21 on account of the negative base effect.
The BJP still does not have a majority in Upper House of Parliament, the Rajya Sabha, and this will pose hurdles to the party's legislative reform agenda
the GDP estimates incorporate new source data and modified compilation techniques
Stating that the economic costs of shutdown of the global economy are accumulating rapidly, Moody's projected that all G-20 advanced economies would contract by 5.8 per cent in 2020.
After two months of net outflow, foreign investors turned buyers in June, infusing Rs 26,565 crore in Indian equities, driven by political stability and a sharp rebound in markets. Looking ahead, attention will gradually shift towards the budget and Q1 FY25 earnings, which could determine the sustainability of FPI flows, Vipul Bhowar, Director, Listed Investments, Waterfield Advisors, said.
A month-long national lockdown to arrest the spread of COVID 2.0 could shave off 100-200 bps of GDP, leading to a 300 bps risk to annual growth, a brokerage report has flagged while expressing doubts over the ability of local lockdowns to control the pandemic. The second wave of the coronavirus inflection has caught the government off-guard with the daily cases jumping over 6.5 times in the past 30 days. With close to 3.53 lakh fresh daily infections, the country is the worst hit globally.
The brokerage firm cautioned that there is a possibility of further downside risks to growth, especially in the near term as RBI's policy interest rate cuts in recent months has not been translated into reduction in bank lending rates.
In the manufacturing sector, output is expected to decline by about 70 per cent as only food-processing, and drugs and pharma industries are allowed to operate while other segments, such as engineering and metals, have shut operations.
The RBI is fully aware that the high-cost loans and high indebtedness of the borrowers could pose financial stability risks, if not addressed by these NBFCs. Governor Shaktikanta Das has issued a stern warning, saying the RBI is closely monitoring these areas and will not hesitate to take appropriate action, if necessary, if the culprits don't opt for self-correction. Watch out for some action, soon, notes Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
India's services sector growth recorded another month of robust expansion in July, albeit at a slightly slower pace than in June, largely supported by robust demand conditions and investment in technology, a monthly survey said on Monday. The seasonally adjusted HSBC India Services Business Activity Index was at 60.3 in July, down only fractionally from 60.5 in June. In the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) parlance, a print above 50 means expansion, while a score below 50 denotes contraction.
Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is unlikely to cut the benchmark interest rate at its upcoming monetary policy review meeting, taking place soon after the announcement of the Lok Sabha election results, amid inflation challenges, said experts. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) may also refrain from rate cut as economic growth is picking up, notwithstanding the elevated interest rate of 6.5 per cent (repo) prevailing since February 2023. The meeting of the Reserve Bank Governor Shaktikanta Das headed MPC is scheduled for June 5 to 7.
The three main reasons behind the cautious optimism about Indian economy include, first, weaker rupee which will boost net exports, secondly, the government's reforms will provide a quick boost to business confidence, and thirdly, the previous rate rises should support investment and durables consumption.
Hopes of revival and earnings growth in 2020, surprise tax cuts, and robust foreign flows - thanks to easy global monetary policies - are a few reasons why the markets have managed to digest the low GDP footprint. Select bluechips such as Reliance Industries, Bajaj Finance, Asian Paints, and ICICI Bank have gained sharply this year. On the other hand, YES Bank, Zee Entertainment, and Indiabulls Housing have seen a sharp fall.
The National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER) on Thursday lowered the GDP projection for the current fiscal to 4.7-4.9 per cent due to exchange rate depreciation.
Sitharaman's Budget missed deficit target for the third year in a row, pushing shortfall to 3.8 per cent of GDP in the current fiscal as compared to 3.3 per cent previously planned.
Portfolio returns, say analysts at Morgan Stanley, are more likely to be driven by bottom-up stock-picking rather than top-down macro forces.
The government will announce the FY13 GDP numbers on May 30, where it expects the readings to be around 5.2 per cent.
RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said that early containment of the pandemic could impart an "upside" to the economic growth outlook.
